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Pre-poll Surveys Predict Hung Assembly in Karnataka Assembly Election 2018

The state of Karnataka goes to polls on may 12 and everyone is impatient to know the results. A number of pre-polls have been conducted by various agencies which project Indian National Congress to be the largest party emerging in the assembly elections

C fore pre-poll survey

C fore conducted the pre-poll survey in Karnataka between April 20th and 30th, 2018. According to this suvey, the Congress will win 118 to 128 seats in the Karnataka assembly elections. C-Fore, whose previous pre-poll surveys have never been off the mark, has said that the Congress is likely to get 46 percent of the votes, a positive swing of nine percent while the The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is expected to get 31 percent votes and the The Janata Dal (Secular)(JDS), 16 percent of the total votes. News 18 reports  that the Congress itself had commissioned this survey. In 2013, C-Fore had predicted that the Congress would end up winning 119-120 seats and it ended up with 122.

However, a Financial Express report quoted opinion polls that suggested that, so far, both BJP and Congress may not get a majority on their own and the JD(S) may gain at their cost.

CHS  Survey

A survey, carried out by a poll agency named CHS, predicted 77-81 seats for Congress, 73-76 seats for BJP and 64-66 seats for the JD(S). Another opinion poll quoted by the report (conducted by TV9-C Voter) had claimed the Congress would be the largest party with 102 seats, while BJP will likely win 96 seats. The JD(S) may end up with 25 seats and is likely to play kingmaker.

Times Now-VMR survey

According to the Times Now-VMR survey, the incumbent Congress is likely to get 91 seats and the BJP may end up with 89 seats. On the other hand, Kumaraswamy’s JD(S) is predicted to get 40 seats.

India Today-Karvy opinion polls survey

India Today-Karvy opinion polls survey states that the Congress is expected to win 90-101 seats, well short of majority target of 112. The BJP may win 78-86 seats, nearly double to its last tally in 2013, while JD(S) is expected to win 34-43 seats and may play a role of kingmaker in the state.

Congress, BJP and JD(S)+ seat share according to the India Today Karvy Insights opinion poll. Courtesy: India Today

According to the Karnataka opinion poll results, the Congress, led by Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, is likely to win between 90 and 101 seats in 225-member Assembly.

The Times Now-VMR survey

The Times Now-VMR survey projected the Congress as the single largest party with 91 seats in the 224-seat assembly, with the BJP finishing a close second with 89 seats. The survey pegged the tally of the JD(S), which is in alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party, at 40 seats in the 2018 assembly elections.

ABP-CSDS survey

According to the ABP-CSDS survey, the Congress will improve its vote share to 37% but still finish second with 85-91 seats. The BJP, united after the split in the 2013 elections, will also improve its vote share to 35% and become the largest party in the assembly with a projected tally of 89-95 seats, the survey said. According to this survey, the JD(S) is projected to get 32-38 seats.

Most surveys have leaned towards  Siddaramaiah led Congress party and ABP-CSDS survey has become the only exception. However the various pre-polls suggest a hung government where the JD(S) will become the king maker.

Polling will be held across the state on May 12. Votes will be counted and results will be declared on May 15.

Elaborate arrangements have been made to ensure peaceful voting amid tight security at 58,546 polling booths, using Electronic Voting Machines along with Voter Verified Paper Audit Trails, as per reports.

The southern state has 4.96 crore registered electors, including 2.52 crore men and 2.44 crore women. Over 15 lakh are first-time voters in the 18-19 age group.

The BJP is making an all-out bid to oust the Siddaramaiah-led Congress government in Karnataka. BS Yeddyurappa is saffron party’s CM candidate.






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